China Inflation Data (奥古斯特 2017)

日期:2019-09-30编辑作者:股票财经

Prices in China rose faster than market had expected in August,with the CPI and PPI ticking up to 1.8%y-o-y and 6.3% y-o-y,respectively.

Summary

Week1Day1 China’s economic data

    The acceleration in monthly inflation was mainly due to higher foodand commodity prices.

    Core CPI inflation surprised modestly to the upside in October, rising 0.225%in month-on-month terms. This raised the year-over-year rate to 1.8%. The dataprovide additional evidence that the core inflation trend is firming after a stringof very weak prints earlier this year. The three-month annualized change in coreCPI inflation is now at 2.4%, the strongest since February 2017. Today's datawill not resolve the inflation debate among Fed officials, nor will it persuade Feddoves. But the data should help to alleviate the inflation worries of some centristand hawkish-leaning Fed officials who had grown uneasy with the Fed's inflationnormalization narrative earlier this year.

优良表明

    The high base of PPI inflation from last year and the temporarynature of food price increase suggests benign price pressure in2017

    Within the details, there is tentative evidence that core goods inflation isstarting to firm, after meaningfully underperforming both our models based onmacroeconomic fundamentals (e.g., the dollar, PPI core goods prices, importprices) and leading indicators at the component level (e.g., PPI apparel prices andprivate sector measures of used car prices). However, the year-over-year inflationrate for core goods inflation still remains near the lowest level since 2004andwell below leading indicators. Core services inflation, on the other hand, wassomewhat stronger than expected, and the outperformance was broad-basedacross the subcomponents. The report also appeared to be free of distortionsfrom meaningful outliers, other than the jump in tobacco prices.

the property market, a pillar of the economy,* crumbled*

    Looking ahead, our core inflation forecast has increased modestly in the neartermbut is otherwise broadly unchanged. Core CPI inflation is still expected toremain near recent low levels in year-over-year terms through 2017. But we expectthe monthly inflation rate to show a somewhat firmer trend of about 0.18% onaverage over the coming months. A continuation of this trend is supportive of aDecember rate hike and a gradual pace of rate increases in 2018.

[ crumbled]崩溃

    Beyond, today's data give us somewhat more confidence in our view that coreinflation should rise over the medium term. We have been generally conservativein our forecasts for a number of components, particularly on the core goodsside, relative to leading indicators. But there is now tentative evidence that somecomponents are either rising toward leading indicators (e.g., used cars) or areremaining resilient in line with macro fundamentals (e.g., owners' equivalentrent). We continue to see core inflation approaching the Fed's objective byend-2018.

Eg.You’re sturdier than Chandler. He crumbled like a piece of paper.

China reported real growth (ie, after accounting for inflation) of 7% year on year in the first quarter, but nominal growth of just 5.8%..

[ inflation]膨胀

Eg. Inflation is an outgrowth of war.

That implied the economy suffered broad-based deflation, a bizarre claim given that consumer prices rose by more than 1% at the same time.

[ implied] adj. 暗指的,含蓄的

Eg. They implied him to be honest.

[ bizarre] adj. 奇异的(指态度,容貌,款式等)

Eg. a bizarre art nouveau façade. 诡异的诀窍建筑。

Had the GDP deflator been more accurate, Chang Liu and Mark Williams of Capital Economics reckon, real growth in the first quarter would have been one or two percentage points lower.

[ reckon] vt. 猜想; 估计〈非正〉思忖; 设想 考虑; 认为〈正〉计算

Eg. reckon the cost of production计算生产开销

The corollary is that the GDPdeflator is now 0.1%,

[ corollary] n. 必然的结果,系,推论

Eg. the huge increases in unemployment were the corollary of expenditure cuts.

失掉工作人数大大扩大是削减支出的必然结果。

That doubtless flattered the data for the second quarter of this year by lowering the base for comparison. But the impact is small: a few tenths of a percentage point, perhaps.

[ Flatter] vt. 向…奉承; 阿谀 给以欢畅的认为

Eg. The portrait flatters her. 那幅画像比她本人美。

That lift has presumably become a drag in recent weeks as share prices have dived.

[ presumably] adv. 据推测, 大概, 可能

Eg. the earring was presumably real gold.

别的表明:

Right on target正中热血

set a growth target of制订目的

year on year同比

signs of some tampering一些歪曲的迹象

quarter-on-quarter上季度

in a row连续的

soaring stock market狂升的股市

专门的职业知识

GDP price deflator GDP平减指数

GDP price deflator is an economic metric that accounts for inflation by converting output measured at current prices into constant-dollar GDP. This specific deflator shows how much a change in the base year’s GDP relies upon changes in the price level. The GDP price deflator is also known as the “implicit price deflator.”

reference:investopedia

Consumer Price Index - CPI 成本者物价指数

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living; the CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation.

reference:investopedia

Producer Price Index - PPI 生产者价格指数

The Producer Price index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller and differs from other indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index, that measure price change from the purchaser’s perspective. The PPI looks at three areas of production: industry-based, commodity-based and commodity-based final demand-intermediate demand.

reference:

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